🏆 Your Guide to the Oscars
Happy Thursday! The Oscars (aka “Karl tears his hair out as the film industry makes questionable choices”) are on Sunday. And this season has been a doozy with controversy after controversy after controversy. Even more, it seems like we have no clue what is going to win. In this week’s newsletter, I try my best to help you win your Oscars pool, reveal my personal Oscar ballot, and tell you where to stream the nominees.
One nominee to stream: CODA
▶︎ Streaming on Apple TV+
Spoiler alert: CODA seems poised to win Best Picture at the Oscars. So, if you’re going to watch one movie before the ceremony, make it this.
The movie follows Ruby (Emilia Jones), a CODA or Child of a Deaf Adult, who is the only hearing member of her family. Despite a familial obligation to stay nearby and help her family with their day-to-day lives and business, she dreams of pursuing singing at an arts college far away. Here’s the trailer.
Why you should watch it: You know the plot. You can tell me what you think is going to happen and I’ll probably tell you you’re right. However, there are moments where CODA breaks from the genre trappings to deliver one of the best musings on what it’s like to be deaf in a hearing world.
When Ruby’s parents (Oscar winner Marlee Matlin and future Oscar winner Troy Korsur) watch her perform for the first time, we hear the song for the first few moments — and then silence. We’re in her parents’ heads. We can’t hear what she sounds like, which is anxiety-inducing for them. However, they begin to look around. The gift of observation that those that are deaf have allowed them to see what the music is doing to the audience so that even though they can’t hear her they know that she has something.
CODA benefits from its stellar and deep exploration of every character, each of whom just happens to be made of pure charm and delight. We get to spend a little time with each of them to understand exactly why they make the decisions they make, the struggles that they fight through — exploring the minutiae of being culturally deaf.
The movie never strays to the melodrama. Every moment feels earned and grounded in something real thanks to the strong performances from the entire cast. If CODA is about anything, it’s about the joys we find through adversity. And though that adversity might shape us, it doesn’t define us.
How to win your Oscars pool (aka Who Will Win)
Continuing the trend of the past few years, the Oscars have become more and more difficult to predict. Long-held stats around precursor awards have fallen left and right as the Academy rapidly expanded its voter base and in turn became more diverse and more international.
That being said, this is the same academy that gave G*een B*ok Best Picture a mere 4 years ago. Since 2016 we’ve seen a bit of a pattern. Call it one for you, one for us. Moonlight and The Shape of Water, two atypical Best Picture winners, were followed by Green Book, which was then followed by two more atypical winners, Parasite and Nomadland.
I know, one cycle doesn’t point to a pattern. Still, based on the trends that have held, CODA, a traditional feel-good crowdpleaser, is our clear frontrunner for Best Picture after two big wins at the Producers Guild Awards and Screen Actors Guild Awards — upsetting The Power of the Dog at the former.
This is still a nailbiter of a race with three of the top categories up for grabs (Picture, Actress, and both Screenplay categories). Here’s my best guess for who’s going to win on Sunday.
Best Picture: CODA1
Best Director: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Best Actress: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye2
Best Actor: Will Smith, King Richard
Best Supporting Actress: Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard3
Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, CODA
Best Original Screenplay: Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt, The Worst Person in the World
Best Adapted Screenplay: Sian Heder, CODA
Best Documentary: Summer of Soul
Best International Feature: Drive My Car
Best Animated Feature: Encanto
Best Original Score: Dune
Best Original Song: "Dos Oruguitas" from Encanto
Best Film Editing: King Richard
Best Cinematography: The Power of the Dog
Best Costume Design: Cruella
Best Production Design: Nightmare Alley
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Best Sound: Dune
Best Visual Effects: Dune
The Karl Awards (aka Who Should Win)
Like every year, the Academy didn’t nominate most of my favorite movies of the year. The egregiously snubbed The Tragedy of Macbeth would’ve led my personal list of nominees. However, I did my best picked who I’d vote for from this list of nominees:
Best Picture: Drive My Car
Best Director: Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Best Actress: Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Best Actor: Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick… Boom!
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur, CODA
Best Original Screenplay: Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt, The Worst Person in the World
Best Adapted Screenplay: Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car
Best Documentary: Flee
Best International Feature: The Worst Person in the World
Best Animated Feature: The Mitchells vs. the Machines
Best Original Score: Dune
Best Original Song: "Dos Oruguitas" from Encanto
Best Film Editing: Tick, Tick… Boom!
Best Cinematography: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Costume Design: Cruella
Best Production Design: The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Cruella
Best Sound: West Side Story
Best Visual Effects: Dune
💬 Who would you pick to win in each category?
Where to stream the nominees
Here is every major nominee that is currently available to stream ranked from best to worst, in my opinion:
Drive My Car
4 nominations including Picture and Director
Streaming on HBO MaxFlee
3 nominations including Documentary, International Film, and Animated Film
Streaming on HuluSpencer
Nominated for Actress
Streaming on Hulu
The Tragedy of Macbeth
3 nominations including Actor
Streaming on Apple TV+
West Side Story
7 nominations including Picture and Director
Streaming on HBO Max and Disney+
Tick, Tick… Boom!
2 nominations including Actor
Streaming on Netflix
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Nominated for Animated FeatureStreaming on Netflix
The Hand of God
Nominated for International Film
Streaming on Netflix
Dune
10 nominations including Picture
Streaming on HBO Max
Summer of Soul
Nominated for Documentary
Streaming on Hulu
CODA
3 nominations including Picture and Supp. Actor
Streaming on Apple TV+Luca
Nominated for Animated Film
Streaming on Disney+
The Power of the Dog
12 nominations including Picture, Director, and Actor
Streaming on Netflix
Nightmare Alley
4 nominations including Picture
Streaming on Hulu and HBO MaxKing Richard
6 nominations including Picture and Actor
Streaming on HBO Max
Encanto
3 nominations including Animated Film and Original Song
Streaming on Disney+
Don’t Look Up
4 nominations including Picture
Streaming on Netflix
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
2 nominations including Actress
Streaming on Hulu and HBO Max
The Lost Daughter
3 nominations including Actress and Supp. Actress
Streaming on Netflix
Raya and the Last Dragon
Nominated for Animated Film
Streaming on Disney+
Cruella
2 nominations including Costumes
Streaming on Disney+
Being the Ricardos
3 nominations including Actress and Actor
Streaming on Prime Video
📽 P.S. You can see every movie I’ve ever recommended right here.
🍅 I’m also a Tomatometer-approved critic on Rotten Tomatoes! You can find new movie reviews here and here.
The Best Picture winner is determined using a preferential ballot. Voters rank all ten nominees in order of preference from first to last place. If no movie receives at least 50% the movie in last place is eliminated. Those votes are then redistributed to the voter’s second choice.
Best Actress is easily the most competitive category this year. While Jessica Chastain has pulled ahead in the last couple of weeks, I could make an argument for any of the nominees. In particular, watch out for Penelope Cruz and Kristen Stewart.
There’s typically a big upset somewhere. I think this is where it’s going to happen. Ariana Debose is the front runner for her performance in West Side Story, but that movie has been lacking in passion in precursor awards.